Wednesday, February 23, 2005

On Eric Byrnes

You hardly need me to point out that the Pirates are, in John Perrotto's words, "hot" for Eric Byrnes. Various sources are speculating that the deal will definitely happen, that it will never happen, and that the cost will be two prospects.

Here are the names I've seen mentioned as possible Byrnes Bait. They're mostly entirely unsubstantiated, so I'm just listing them here as a beginning point for discussion.

-Ian Snell
-Nathan McLouth
-Tom Gorzelanny
-Mike Gonzalez
-Freddy Sanchez

Freddy Sanchez is 27 years old. If the Pirates want to trade Sanchez for Byrnes, that's fine with me.

As for Snell, McLouth, Gorzelanny and Gonzalez: there are two important factors when evaluating any trade. The first is whether the exchange of talent is fair, and the second is how the trade works in terms of what each team is trying to accomplish.

This begs the question: what are the Pirates trying to accomplish? I have no idea. Recently, they traded a prospect for a stopgap starter. Six months ago, they traded Kris Benson to the Mets for a stopgap starter and two prospects. Six months before that, they DFAed various prospects and left several more unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Six months before that, they traded a superstar for a young pitcher and two prospects. Around the same time, they traded a stopgap starter and a reliever for a prospect. They also traded a young and promising third baseman for a young bench player, a stopgap starter, and a prospect. Then they DFA'ed the prospect.

Anyone notice a pattern here? I don't. A GM certainly can attempt to achieve many things at once, but I have no idea what Dave Littlefield is trying to achieve. The only compelling explanation for his actions that I've heard is that he's trying to "Drive for 75" wins each year, sacrificing a little of the future and a little of the present at the same time in order to keep the Pirates from having a disastrous season and keep them from being pressured to spend money. What this means would be that the Pirates are sacrificing shots at the playoffs and the World Series just to avoid being completely abysmal.

This strategy is hopelessly depressing. But even more depressing is the alternative explanation: that Littlefield and Kevin McClatchy are completely incompetent rather than simply pretty bad.

I'm not aware of any other convincing explanations for Littlefield and McClatchy's behavior. And please, I don't want to hear from anyone that 'he has a plan, we just don't know what it is.' Littlefield has had three years now to turn his plan into action, and turning plans into action typically requires direction and a certain consistency of behavior. If he had a plan other than "Drive for 75," we'd know about it by now. The A's have a plan. The Indians have a plan. The Brewers and Braves have plans. The Pirates probably do not.

In the past, I've written about how the Pirates could have the best young players in baseball right now, with a team that could destroy everyone in 2007 or so. Unfortunately, they don't have a collection of great young players now, thanks to the Littlefield regime. (Baseball Prospectus released its list of the top 50 prospects in baseball this week; there's not a single Pirate on it.)

So given what's already happened, what should the Pirates do about Byrnes? Given that the pointless bungling of the last three years has already occurred, what should the Pirates do now with the talent they have?

The Pirates won 72 games last year with a young team, but some of their top performers last year are likely to take a step backwards this year; their major offseason move was to part ways with one of their best players. I don't see how it's possible for them to improve the 15 or 20 games or so necessary to win enough games to make the playoffs this year. Fifteen games is a whole lot, and there are only a few ways for a team to improve that much in an offseason.

1) Sign really talented players. The Pirates didn't do this. In fact, they did the opposite of this by ridding themselves of a really talented player.
2) Be completely abysmal, 2003 Tigers-style, in the year before the improvement. The Pirates didn't do this.
3) Get really wild breakout seasons from a number of players, without getting many regressions from other players to offset the breakouts.

Option number 3 seems like the only possibility for the Pirates to win in 2005, and it's extremely remote - in 2004, the Pirates got huge steps forward from Oliver Perez and Jack Wilson, good years from Craig Wilson and Jose Mesa, career years from Brian Meadows and Salomon Torres, and way-beyond-expectations rookie seasons from Jason Bay and Mike Gonzalez. The only even reasonably likely breakout candidates are Kip Wells and Jose Castillo. In other words, there isn't a ton of upside for 2005, and the Pirates would have to harness pretty much all of it to contend, even with Eric Byrnes.

Besides, Byrnes isn't even that good. Why do you think the A's, who have a much better shot at contending in 2005 than the Pirates, want to trade Byrnes for minor leaguers? So they can play Bobby Kielty and Charles Thomas who, again, aren't that good.

On the other hand, the Pirates do have a ton of pitching, and even a few position prospects, at AAA and AA, including McLouth, Snell and Gorzelanny. Not all of it is great, but at least they should have mostly prospects in the Indianapolis and Altoona rotations. They also control many of the key players currently on the major league roster - Perez, Bay, Jack Wilson, and Gonzalez - through 2007. So why not wait a year or two, see how the pitching develops, and then start acquiring players like Byrnes for a playoff push? The Pirates won't even be very good then, but most of the best players on the team will still be there, and so will a number of the remaining Bonifay prospects. Even given the planless wandering of the Littlefield administration so far, better days, although still not particularly good days, are on the horizon. Why squander them for the present, especially when the only prize is a player like Byrnes?

In certain contexts, Byrnes for Snell might not be a terrible idea. If Snell belonged to a team with a good rotation, serious outfield needs and a decent chance of making the playoffs, Snell might be a fair price for Eric Byrnes. However, those characteristics do not describe the Pirates - they have an okay rotation that Snell will probably wind up in at some point in the year and no reasonable shot at the playoffs. They have enough outfielders in general; their real problem is center field, and Byrnes doesn't solve that problem - he has good speed and plays hard, but like the Pirates' current walking disaster Tike Redman, he takes weird routes. UZR, which uses play-by-play data to determine how many balls a player gets to compared to how many he should get to, is probably the best defensive stat we have. UZR measures Byrnes at 24 runs below average in left field last year. Byrnes must be regarded as a corner outfielder, and not a very good one at that, and the Pirates already have plenty of defensively-challenged corner outfielders.

Given that Byrnes isn't a great fit for the Pirates and the Pirates aren't likely to contend anyway, they would be better off waiting for their young pitchers to develop before trading youngsters for players like him.

112 Comments:

Blogger bkopec said...

24 runs below average in LF? Can that be right? If so, that HAS to be the worst performance in the majors last year.

Byrnes would improve the Pirates, but he does not solve any of their problems. Marginal improvement, when much more is needed to contend, is no reason to spend prospect resources.

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Though your post on Byrnes seems to be thought out, I must ask why you used the only stat that showed Byrnes in a negative light? And that stat was defensive. I am an A's fan and I don't want the A's to trade him at all, let alone to the Pirates.
One thing that you can't keep stats for is the energy a player bring to his team, and Byrnes brings a ton of energy to the A's. He makes everybody around him try harder, because of his positive energy and his "there's no tomorrow" attitude. I would hate to think he would go to a team like Pittsburgh, where they don't even care about winning, and that it might bring him down. I know you are only looking at the stats, but I guarentee that Byrnes would make the Pirates better. At least you would have one guy on your team that wanted to win.

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