Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Bucs May Non-tender Fogg

Peter Gammons reports. This is fine with me. Fogg's a useful, but nonetheless mediocre, starter.

Here are his 2004 stats:
IP 178.1 K 82 BB 66 HR 17 ERA 4.64

Here are his K/9 rates in the last three years:

2002: 5.23
2003: 4.50
2004: 4.14

I'd post his K/BB numbers, too, but they're almost irrelevant at this point, since Fogg simply isn't striking anyone out, and his K rates have progressed from bad to terrible. What kept Fogg from being awful last year was his HR allowed rate, which declined considerably from previous years. If his strikeout rate keeps dropping, though, even that's not going to help him.

Here's the Pirates' rotation next year:

Very Likely
Oliver Perez
Mark Redman

Likely
Kip Wells
Dave Williams

Possible
John VanBenschoten
Ian Snell
Ryan Vogelsong

Possible Mid-Season Promotions
Zach Duke
Bobby Bradley (finally)
Cory Stewart

What if there's a problem?
Salomon Torres
Brian Meadows

The Pirates have lots of options already, including lots of pretty good ones. Except for Zach Duke, every one of the players listed above is already on the 40-man roster. There's no reason to worry much about losing Fogg, who will be 28 and unlikely to improve next year. The Pirates should non-tender Fogg, then use the money saved to help acquire someone who stands a chance of really benefiting the team - not a bargain free agent like Randall Simon who stinks it up and blocks better players, but someone who's markedly better than the available options, preferably a third baseman.

Update: I just looked at Batting Third and he's talking about this too.

4 Comments:

Blogger bkopec said...

nice job laying the possibilities out. i agree wholeheartedly about fogg. he's a nice pitcher to have, but not at the price he is likely to get. of course, if littlefield thinks mesa is worth $2.5 mill, then he probably thinks fogg is worth $5 mill.

3:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you're undervaluing Fogg's performance greatly. This is a guy who doesn't get hurt, gives you near 200 innings every year, and always wins double digits. How many other starters do we have like that? Well, Redman, for one, and Perez has done it once. His second half ERA was in the 3s. That's not a small sample size, that's 3 months. really, he only had a bad april last year that inflated his numbers. Check his splits, he was damn good last year after april. There is a lot to be said for a player that has won 10 games or more, and has never lost more than he has won, 3 consecutive years on a team that consistently finished 20 or more games below .500. Josh Fogg is a winner. I'd pay $4 million for an assured 200 innings of .500 baseball. If all our starters were .500, you can almost guarantee your overall record will be if you have a solid bullpen, which we do. And who knows what the actual level of performance will be for any young pitcher? You can't assume they would do better than throw 200 innings and win as many as they lose. Josh Fogg is not the problem on this team.

12:17 AM  
Blogger bkopec said...

josh fogg is not the problem. i agree with you there.

paying him the 3-4 million he'll get in arbitration to be a below league average pitcher is the problem.

12:17 PM  
Blogger Charlie said...

I tend to agree. Fogg has value. I just think that in the Pirates' case, his production can be replaced by some combination of their cheap youngsters.

3:46 PM  

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