Thursday, July 29, 2004


In the comments section of the previous post, Avkash of The Raindrops informs me that BP's park factors measure something like the total run scoring environment a team plays in relative to its league. So, if I understand correctly, the Rockies' park factor includes all the games at Coors Field as well as all their games in the pitchers' parks in San Francisco and Los Angeles (and now San Diego). Therefore, it is possible that Rochester is actually a pitchers' park, but that they play enough away games in strong hitting environments to offset that, relative to the rest of the International League. Regardless, this point does not weaken my thesis; Restovich compiled his 2003 stats in an environment that probably a bit easier on hitters than the environment in which Davis compiled his, and Davis' numbers were much more impressive.

Avkash, thanks for the help. I made a couple minor corrections to this post based on Avkash's comments in the link below.


Anonymous Anonymous said...


You're right about the BP park factors, and Coors Field is a good example. As for which of Rochester or Nashville is the more difficult hitting environment? Can't say for certain, but as a general rule of thumb, it's much easier to put up nice offensive stats in the PCL than INTL, parks be damned.

Mariners Wheelhouse looked into this a while back, using Baseball America's park factors (which I don't agree with at all -- I prefer BPro). Nevertheless, the way Steve approaches the problem is useful, and after looking at his charts, along with what I know about the respective leagues and the different park factors they've been assigned, I'd either call it a wash, or give Restovich a very slight, nearly meaningless edge (meaning he hit in the more difficult park/league).


PS That second anon. comment is me, too, I forgot to sign it. Where's Davis been all season, only 66 at-bats in the minors that I can see.

4:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, damnit, I used the wrong link up there.

The Mariners Wheelhouse link should go here.


4:26 PM  
Blogger Charlie said...

he's been "injured" and/or buried on the bench. he's out of options, so the only way they could send him to the minors was on a fake rehab assignment.

4:35 PM  
Blogger Charlie said...

Thank you, by the way. Looking at those BA numbers, it appears I was basically right, although Rochester and Nashville are more similar than I thought. For some reason I forgot they were in different leagues. I'm going to make a small correction to the text of the post.

4:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Geez, just when I thought I was going to enjoy this blog. No, you weren't basically right, you were *basically* wrong.

In 2003, Davis played in the more hitter friendly AAA league, Restovich played in the less hitter friendly league.

Once again, I agree with what I think is your point, that Davis is a better prospect than Restovich. But the numbers you use to back it up aren't completely valid.

Here's something more valid: Ottawa wasn't the Twins AAA affiliate before Rochester, it was Edmonton. In 2002, Restovich hit 29 HR's for Edmonton in the PCL. In 2003, Davis hit 26 HR's for Nashville in the PCL.

You seem to be trying to convince yourself you were right, but you're coming off petty.


9:49 AM  
Blogger Charlie said...

Hey, sorry I upset you but I don't think I'm being petty. The overall park factors you linked say Rochester is a stronger hitting environment than Nashville (991 to 950). That suggests to me that I was basically right. Of course the PCL is the more hitter friendly league; that isn't the issue. The issue is the total hitting environment, and according to the numbers with which you provided me, Restovich's was easier on hitters. I'm not trying to squeak around corners to prove I was basically right - if I were I wouldn't have issued corrections twice based on the data you provided. I'm willing to admit that the original post wasn't perfect.

Restovich's 2002 numbers are certainly interesting, but where has that terrific power gone? He's fallen off the face of the earth - relatively speaking - since then. Davis, on the other hand, didn't hit well in the majors this year, but he put up very good numbers when he was allowed to play each day in AAA.

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